Chokepoint Blockade Exposes Supply Risk for Black Sea Grain

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Nov 27, 2018Chokepoint Blockade Exposes Supply Risk for Black Sea Grain+1.5%
• Oct 1, 2026War Throttles Black Sea Grain Exports, Threatening Food Supplies-2.9%
• Jan 25, 2022Frost risk remains for Black Sea crops: Grain market daily | AHDB-2.1%
• Jun 15, 2022Unblocking the Black Sea for Ukrainian Grain | RAND-2.3%
• Mar 18, 2022Russia Blocks Ships Carrying Grain Exports | Feed & Grain+14.9%

After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Oct 1, 2026War Throttles Black Sea Grain Exports, Threatening Food Supplies-1.2%
• Jun 15, 2022Unblocking the Black Sea for Ukrainian Grain | RAND-1.6%
• Mar 18, 2022Russia Blocks Ships Carrying Grain Exports | Feed & Grain+0.0%
• Jul 9, 2020Ukrainian farmers and grain exports hit hard by Russian blockade of Black Sea ports | Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation-5.2%
• Mar 10, 2022Grains edge higher as hopes for Black Sea ceasefire fade – The Seam+2.5%