War Throttles Black Sea Grain Exports, Threatening Food Supplies

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Mar 17, 2023Russia Still Slow-Walking Ukraine Food Exports in Black Sea Grain Deal-3.7%
• Feb 25, 2022Grain exporters tap EU supplies as war shuts Ukraine ports -traders+9.4%
• Jun 19, 2026Rising Attacks on Ukrainian Black Sea Ports Threaten Grain Export Capacity and Global Supply | Tridge Insights-1.6%
• Jul 31, 2026EXCLUSIVE: Russian grain lobby says Kyiv's attacks threaten Black Sea exports, global food security | Reuters-1.0%
• Nov 27, 2018Chokepoint Blockade Exposes Supply Risk for Black Sea Grain+1.5%

After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Mar 17, 2023Russia Still Slow-Walking Ukraine Food Exports in Black Sea Grain Deal-1.0%
• Feb 25, 2022Grain exporters tap EU supplies as war shuts Ukraine ports -traders+6.6%
• Jun 19, 2026Rising Attacks on Ukrainian Black Sea Ports Threaten Grain Export Capacity and Global Supply | Tridge Insights-1.1%
• Feb 24, 2022Ukraine shuts ports as conflict threatens grain supplies | Reuters+6.5%
• Dec 1, 2020Chokepoint Blockade Exposes Supply Risk for Black Sea Grain | Feed & Grain-0.4%