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Russia blocked access to the Kerch Strait between the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea after firing on Ukrainian naval vessels in neutral waters. Shipments resumed Monday, and Chicago wheat rose as much as 1 percent.
The article notes that Black Sea grain shipments are a major share of global wheat trade.
The incident highlights supply-chain risk at a chokepoint for Russian and Ukrainian grain, which are key to world wheat exports. Wheat is already up about 20 percent this year, so further disruption could add a risk premium.
gcaptain.comBloombergNov 27, 2018After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
