Grains Close Higher a Second Week: How High Will Prices Rally?

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Dec 19, 2023Terrain | Rally in U.S. Wheat Prices Will Depend on Russia+0.4%
• Mar 2, 2022Wheat Prices Shoot to 14-Year High on Concerns over Conflict Between Russia and Ukraine - AgWeb+6.9%
• Mar 22, 2022Crops extend gains on supply worries with soy at 2-week high - Moneyweb+2.0%
• Feb 14, 2025Wheat, the Dog of the Grain Complex, Rallies to New Highs for the Move - AgWeb+1.6%
• Jul 24, 2026Grains Markets Hit New Highs on Black Sea Attacks, Crude Oil Rally-2.2%

After 94 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.7% to +5.8%), and +0.1% over 20.

• Dec 19, 2023Terrain | Rally in U.S. Wheat Prices Will Depend on Russia+2.4%
• Mar 2, 2022Wheat Prices Shoot to 14-Year High on Concerns over Conflict Between Russia and Ukraine - AgWeb+17.2%
• Feb 14, 2025Wheat, the Dog of the Grain Complex, Rallies to New Highs for the Move - AgWeb+1.8%
• Jan 31, 2022Russia-Ukraine Tensions Drive Global Wheat Prices Higher-2.1%
• Jul 24, 2023Grain prices heat up on weather, war worries-0.5%

After 31 past neutral geopolitics events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Feb 14, 2025Wheat, the Dog of the Grain Complex, Rallies to New Highs for the Move - AgWeb+1.4%
• Nov 22, 2023Wheat jumps 1% to near 2-week high on Black Sea supply concerns - Markets - Business Recorder-3.5%
• Oct 26, 2023U.S. grains: Wheat up off two-week low on Ukraine export uncertainty - AgCanada-3.5%
• Oct 5, 2026Farmers Face A Fertilizer Market Full of Wild Cards - AgWeb-3.5%
• Aug 31, 2026First Thing Today | Grains mostly weaker overnight; EPA news may come today - Pro Farmer-0.3%