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US diesel prices rose to six-month highs after the NYMEX M1 ULSD futures contract gained 12.35 cents/gal to $2.5017/gal on Jan. 10, its largest one-day gain since October 2023.
The US and UK announced new sanctions on Russia's energy sector, including curbs on two major Russian oil producers, lifting the broader crude complex. Midwest differentials weakened even as outright prices climbed.
Sanctions on Russian oil exports tighten global crude and distillate supply, raising the cost of diesel and fuel-linked inputs for feed transport and processing. Higher diesel also lifts freight and drying costs across the feed chain.
spglobal.comAaron TuckerJan 11, 2025After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
NYMEX ULSD futures posted their largest one-day gain since Oct 2023 on Jan 10 as sanctions on Russian energy lifted the crude complex, directly explaining the move.
