US Gulf Coast ULSD hit an all-time high of $5.182/gal on September 15, and NYMEX ULSD futures reached a record $5.262/gal. The spike followed Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia's Syzran refinery and broader global supply disruptions with strong demand.
Record diesel costs raise fuel and freight expenses across feed supply chains and can lift the cost of grain and feed transport. The rally was driven by refinery disruption, which keeps the risk of further spikes.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.