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US refiners produced about 5.3 million barrels per day of distillate in July, putting output on pace for a record July outside winter. The increase responds to a global diesel squeeze caused by the Russia and Iran wars, strong exports and Hormuz concerns.
Higher US output eases some global diesel tightness, but strong exports and low US inventories could still raise prices into winter. Diesel costs remain a key input for feed and grain logistics.
ttnews.comWill KubzanskyJul 22, 2026After 327 past geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -3.9% to +7.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
