
Diesel futures on the CME fell more than 55 cents per gallon on Monday, the largest one-day drop in the contract's history. The DOE/EIA average retail diesel price still rose 30.4 cents to $5.375 per gallon, its 10th straight weekly increase.
Retail diesel is the basis for most freight fuel surcharges, so the lag between futures and pump prices keeps feed transport costs elevated even after a sharp futures selloff.
After 327 past geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -3.9% to +7.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.