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An Oxford Institute for Energy Studies comment reviews the factors behind OPEC+8's August 3 decision to complete the phase-out of 2.2 million b/d in voluntary cuts with a 547,000 b/d increment in September. It outlines market share, compliance and political explanations.
The analysis explains the policy drivers behind continued OPEC+ supply increases, which shape the outlook for crude prices and energy costs.
oxfordenergy.orgBy: Bassam Fattouh, Andreas EconomouAug 6, 2025After 63 past neutral geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -4.4% to +2.6%), and -2.7% over 20.
After 60 past neutral geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -4.7% to +2.3%), and -1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
