
European gas prices swung higher on Monday, keeping the prompt TTF contract above $12/MMBtu. European storage passed 90% of capacity, while Norwegian flows dropped about 1 Bcf/d during maintenance.
Hezbollah and Israel launched large-scale attacks over the weekend, adding to Middle East tensions.
Middle East and Ukraine tensions combined with Norwegian maintenance keep European gas volatile, adding cost pressure on fertilizer and energy inputs for feed.
After 162 past geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.2% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -2.0% to +7.5%), and +4.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.