
OPEC+ kept its oil production targets on December 4, 2022, as markets weighed slowing Chinese demand against the G7 price cap and EU boycott on Russian oil. The EU embargo and $60 cap were set to begin the following day.
Uncertainty over how much Russian crude leaves the market could tighten supply and lift prices, which raises energy and fertilizer costs for feed producers.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 162 past geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.2% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -2.0% to +7.5%), and +4.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.