
Oil prices hit their highest in about six months after sources said Gulf OPEC members would raise output only if there was demand to offset any shortfall from a U.S. decision to end waivers for buyers of Iranian crude.
Losing Iranian barrels tightens supply, and OPEC's conditional response limits the cushion, so crude prices are pushed higher.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, WTI moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Oil surged on 2019-04-23 to ~six-month highs as Gulf OPEC signaled it would raise output only if demand warranted, raising supply-shortfall concerns from the end of Iranian waivers.