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Brent and WTI crude rose then fell back as Russia-Ukraine talk hopes faded and sanctions weighed on Russian oil. Palm oil held near 6,000 ringgit per tonne before slipping, and soyoil fell on Monday while sunflower oil supply concerns persisted due to Ukrainian port blockades.
Sanctions on Russian crude and blocked Ukrainian ports tighten vegetable oil supply and keep energy-linked oils volatile, though softer crude and soyoil prices limit the upside.
ukragroconsult.comApr 1, 2022After 62 past bullish geopolitics events, Palm Oil moved a median +2.5% over 5 sessions (74% higher; middle half -0.1% to +5.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
After 144 past geopolitics events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.9% to +3.2%), and -0.6% over 20.
After 63 past neutral geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -4.4% to +2.6%), and -2.7% over 20.
After 60 past neutral geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -4.7% to +2.3%), and -1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Sunflower oil supply concerns from Ukrainian port blockades and crude oil swings supported vegetable oil prices, although soyoil dipped on the day.
April 1 report of soyoil weakness and crude volatility as palm slipped from near 6,000 ringgit, indicating spillover pressure from competing vegetable oils and energy.
