
Oil rose about 2% on Tuesday after Trump and Putin agreed to talks on stabilizing energy markets, with benchmarks rebounding from 18-year lows. WTI still posted its worst month and quarter on record, while Brent was roughly flat and physical cargoes sold at deep discounts in some regions.
Prospects of coordinated producer action support crude prices after a steep sell-off. Lower crude keeps diesel and freight costs low, but the gap between physical and futures prices signals continued weakness in energy-linked demand.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 63 past neutral geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -4.4% to +2.6%), and -2.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.