
Brent front-month futures rose to $104.63 a barrel in early trade, extending a record March gain of 64%. Prices had fallen the previous day on reports that Iran's president was ready to end the war, and Trump said the US could end the campaign within two to three weeks.
Peace-talk expectations pull prices lower, but LSEG analysts see supply risks skewed upward, so crude remains supported and the cost pressure on biofuel feedstocks and freight persists.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.