Brent futures settled at $112.78 a barrel after intraday gains to $116.89, and WTI finished above $100 for the first time since July 2022. The move followed reports that the Houthis had joined the Iran war, adding to Middle East supply risk.
Expanded conflict threatens Gulf crude flows, lifting crude costs for feed producers through energy, freight and fertilizer inputs. Higher diesel and natural gas costs also feed into grain and oilseed processing margins.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.