Oil gains nearly 3% on rising Mideast tension, falling US crude stockpiles

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Dec 20, 2023Oil settles up on Red Sea tensions; gains capped by US stock builds | Reuters+1.3%
• Sep 30, 2024Crude Rallies on Middle East Tensions+9.1%
• Apr 11, 2018Colombian peso gains on oil, Mideast tensions+1.6%
• Dec 29, 2025USD/CAD slips to near 1.3650 as Oil prices gain on Middle East tensions+2.7%
• Oct 7, 2024Oil prices extend gains, lifting Brent crude towards $80 on fears of wider Middle East conflict | Reuters+1.6%

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Dec 20, 2023Oil settles up on Red Sea tensions; gains capped by US stock builds | Reuters+1.0%
• Sep 30, 2024Crude Rallies on Middle East Tensions+9.6%
• Apr 11, 2018Colombian peso gains on oil, Mideast tensions+1.1%
• Dec 29, 2025USD/CAD slips to near 1.3650 as Oil prices gain on Middle East tensions+0.4%
• Oct 7, 2024Oil prices extend gains, lifting Brent crude towards $80 on fears of wider Middle East conflict | Reuters+1.2%

After 327 past geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -3.9% to +7.5%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Oct 2, 2026Oil Rises as Mideast Tensions Sustain Supply-Disruption Fears+8.4%
• Jun 13, 2025Traders pile into $80 US oil bets as tensions rise in Middle East+15.6%
• Jun 30, 2025Oil prices fall on easing Middle East risks+4.1%
• Jul 29, 2026Middle East strikes and shrinking US crude stocks send oil prices up-9.4%
• Mar 15, 2026Oil poised for further gains as Middle East conflict threatens export facilities | Reuters+15.6%