
Brent was trading near $126 to $131 and WTI near $120 to $126 as investors weighed the US ban on Russian oil imports. Traders said the ban might not worsen the supply shock, and Russia announced a ceasefire to let civilians leave Ukraine.
The IEA's 60 million barrel reserve release was described as an initial response.
Doubts that the US import ban would tighten supply capped crude prices near record levels. Energy costs remain elevated, which keeps pressure on feed and biofuel margins.
After 63 past neutral geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -4.4% to +2.6%), and -2.7% over 20.
After 60 past neutral geopolitics events, WTI moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -4.7% to +2.3%), and -1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Notes traders judged the US import ban might not worsen the supply shock and that Russia announced a ceasefire for civilians, reducing the risk premium.