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Oil fell about 3% to a seven-week low on May 1, 2024, after a surprise build in US crude stocks. Hopes for a Middle East ceasefire agreement also eased geopolitical risk premiums.
Lower crude weakens the energy-driven support for biofuel feedstocks and ethanol margins, modestly pressuring corn and soybean oil. The price drop reflects easing supply risk rather than a change in grain fundamentals.
reuters.comScott DisavinoMay 1, 2024After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Dated May 1, it describes the drop to a seven-week low on a surprise US crude stock build and easing Middle East risk premium, which matches the timing and direction of the move.
