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The yuan slipped against a firm dollar as Middle East tensions drove safe-haven demand, and the PBOC set a weaker-than-expected midpoint. The CFETS trade-weighted basket stayed near a one-year high, and exports remained strong despite the property downturn.
Higher oil prices from the Middle East conflict lift global inflation expectations and support the dollar, which tightens financial conditions for dollar-priced commodity buyers.
finimize.comFinimize NewsroomMar 12, 2026After 14 past bullish geopolitics events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 89 past bullish geopolitics events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (74% higher; middle half -0.0% to +1.0%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
