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Gulf News commentary argues that the oil market is underreacting to shipping risks around the Arabian Peninsula. It cites Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers near Hodeida and the suspension of Bab al-Mandab shipments, plus Iranian threats over the Strait of Hormuz.
The piece notes reports that Kuwait and the UAE are considering similar suspensions.
Possible spread of shipping suspensions to other Gulf exporters would remove more crude from transit and could lift prices. The market may be underpricing this risk, leaving room for upside.
gulfnews.comSaadallah Al Fathi, Special to Gulf NewsJul 29, 2018After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
