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Reports describe a war involving Iran and rising Gulf tensions that have disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The strait normally carries about a third of world urea trade, and more than 1.1 million tonnes of urea are reported stranded in the Gulf.
Energy prices have risen sharply, raising concerns about food and fertilizer price shocks.
Blocked Gulf urea exports and higher energy costs tighten global nitrogen supply and raise production costs, pushing fertilizer and feed grain prices higher.
agrobitenews.comAgrobitėJun 6, 2020After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
