
Oil rose a second day on June 14 after attacks on two tankers in the Gulf of Oman, with Brent up 0.4% at $61.54. Washington blamed Iran for the attacks, which Tehran denied, and crude was still heading for a weekly decline.
Heightened US-Iran tensions around a key shipping route add a geopolitical risk premium to crude, supporting energy input costs.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.