Gulf fertiliser prices have shot up, but the growth spurt is set to end

After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.

• Jun 6, 2020From the Persian Gulf to the granaries of Lithuania: the war in Iran threatens a price shock for food and fertiliser - Agrobitė+1.3%
• Mar 24, 2026Global fertilizer prices have reached record levels, but what to expect next?+2.0%
• Mar 5, 2026How the Iran war could create a ‘fertiliser shock’ – an often ignored global risk to food prices and farming+3.0%
• May 31, 2022Why fertiliser prices are soaring-8.8%
• Sep 1, 2026Why higher fertilizer prices are here to stay+1.7%

After 114 past bullish geopolitics events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Mar 24, 2026Global fertilizer prices have reached record levels, but what to expect next?+5.5%
• May 31, 2022Why fertiliser prices are soaring-4.4%
• Sep 1, 2026Why higher fertilizer prices are here to stay+0.3%
• Apr 1, 2026Fertilizer Prices Have ‘Significant’ Rise After Attack on Iran+4.0%
• Sep 21, 2021Food prices poised to surge with fertilizer at highest in years+0.2%