Commodity markets are surging, with May Chicago wheat hitting an all-time high of $13.635 before falling sharply to close at $11.07. Corn also swung widely, with May corn settling at $7.625 and December at $6.5525, while USDA raised its estimate of US corn exports by 75 million bushels due to Ukraine war impacts.
Lower Ukrainian grain output and higher US export demand tighten global corn and wheat supplies, lifting feed ingredient costs. Dairy producers face higher feed bills, which keeps milk prices high to discourage output cuts.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 373 past bullish events of any kind, Milk (Class III) moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.0%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.