US Class III milk reached $20.38 in January 2022, the highest since 2014, while input costs rose sharply year over year, including diesel up 41 percent. Oil near $100 a barrel and the Russia-Ukraine crisis raise concern over energy prices and feed costs, especially corn.
Russia and Ukraine supply about a third of global corn and cereal grain exports, so the crisis raises feed grain prices and increases cost pressure for dairy and livestock producers.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.