A MarketMinute report citing a World Bank commodity index says the global fertilizer index rose 6.5% over the last month, while energy prices softened. The article attributes the rise to disruption of Strait of Hormuz shipments after the regional military conflict.
A fertilizer-specific supply shock during planting season raises input costs for grain and oilseed producers, with potential knock-on effects on crop yields and feed prices.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 72 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +2.5%), and -1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.