Global fertilizer shortage is threatening a worldwide food crisis

After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, UREA moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.

• Mar 1, 2023War-induced fertilizer crunch threatens global food security | World Economic Forum-3.9%
• Apr 6, 2022A fertilizer shortage, worsened by war in Ukraine, is driving up global food prices and scarcity-3.9%
• May 23, 2022Global food crisis looms as fertilizer supplies dwindle | National Geographic-10.7%
• Mar 5, 2026How the Iran war could create a ‘fertiliser shock’ – an often ignored global risk to food prices and farming+3.0%
• Jul 2, 2026Iran war: From fertilizer to food crisis? | IFPRI+2.7%

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, WHEAT moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Apr 6, 2022A fertilizer shortage, worsened by war in Ukraine, is driving up global food prices and scarcity-2.3%
• May 23, 2022Global food crisis looms as fertilizer supplies dwindle | National Geographic-2.2%
• Mar 5, 2026How the Iran war could create a ‘fertiliser shock’ – an often ignored global risk to food prices and farming+1.7%
• Apr 1, 2026The Iran war’s impacts on global fertilizer markets and food production-2.5%
• Feb 14, 2023Can Ukraine's Grain Corridor Ease the Global Food Crisis?-1.2%

After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, CORN moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Apr 6, 2022A fertilizer shortage, worsened by war in Ukraine, is driving up global food prices and scarcity-1.9%
• May 23, 2022Global food crisis looms as fertilizer supplies dwindle | National Geographic+0.0%
• Mar 5, 2026How the Iran war could create a ‘fertiliser shock’ – an often ignored global risk to food prices and farming+2.4%
• Jul 2, 2026Iran war: From fertilizer to food crisis? | IFPRI+0.8%
• Apr 1, 2026The Iran war’s impacts on global fertilizer markets and food production-1.7%