Argentina set for near-record farm dollar windfall as global supply shocks lift grain exports - Markets

After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Feb 25, 2022Dollar surges as Russia invades Ukraine - Business & Finance - Business Recorder+6.6%
• Jul 24, 2023Palm oil up over news on Ukraine port attack - Markets - Business Recorder+9.3%
• Jul 22, 2026Chicago wheat jumps on renewed attacks on Black Sea ports - Markets - Business Recorder+0.7%
• Mar 21, 2022Wheat rebounds on Black Sea supply worries; corn, soybeans rise 1% - Markets - Business Recorder+1.5%
• Mar 25, 2022The feed factor: Global maize shortage could affect local rice market | The Business Standard+3.5%

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Aug 31, 2026Russian wheat export prices climb as Black Sea supplies shrink - Markets - Business Recorder+2.2%
• Nov 1, 2022Palm oil surges nearly 5% on worries over Black Sea supplies - Markets - Business Recorder+7.3%
• Nov 22, 2023Wheat jumps 1% to near 2-week high on Black Sea supply concerns - Markets - Business Recorder-0.4%
• Feb 25, 2022Dollar surges as Russia invades Ukraine - Business & Finance - Business Recorder+9.4%
• May 19, 2026Global wheat markets on edge as war, weather, fertilizer shocks drive new rally | S&P Global-1.1%

After 72 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +2.5%), and -1.0% over 20.

• Jul 22, 2026Chicago wheat jumps on renewed attacks on Black Sea ports - Markets - Business Recorder-0.6%
• Mar 21, 2022Wheat rebounds on Black Sea supply worries; corn, soybeans rise 1% - Markets - Business Recorder+2.5%
• May 6, 2022Global grain shortage an opportunity for Argentina's 'green gold' | Buenos Aires Times-1.1%
• Aug 23, 2023US grain markets bumpy amid global challenges | World Grain+2.3%
• Jan 20, 2025China’s yuan rises to over two-week high on positive US-China talk, better economic data - Markets - Business Recorder+1.1%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.