
Argentina's strong soybean and grain harvest is expected to bring record prices because of the global grain shortage caused by the war in Ukraine. Agro-industrial exports could reach $41 billion this year, according to experts, though the soybean crop is smaller than last year.
A smaller Argentine soybean crop combined with elevated world prices supports soybean and meal values, while the export inflow strengthens the country's currency.
After 72 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +2.5%), and -1.0% over 20.
After 34 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +3.5%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.