Chicago wheat jumps on renewed attacks on Black Sea ports - Markets

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Nov 22, 2023Wheat jumps 1% to near 2-week high on Black Sea supply concerns - Markets - Business Recorder-0.4%
• May 4, 2023Wheat climbs to one-week high on Black Sea supply concerns - Markets - Business Recorder-1.4%
• Aug 31, 2026Russian wheat export prices climb as Black Sea supplies shrink - Markets - Business Recorder+2.2%
• Mar 21, 2022Wheat rebounds on Black Sea supply worries; corn, soybeans rise 1% - Markets - Business Recorder+15.8%
• Nov 1, 2022Palm oil surges nearly 5% on worries over Black Sea supplies - Markets - Business Recorder+7.3%

After 94 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.7% to +5.8%), and +0.1% over 20.

• Jul 16, 2026Wheat markets respond to Sea of Azov attacks - Grainews+6.0%
• Sep 1, 2026GRAINS-Chicago wheat hits multi-year peak after Russia rejects Black Sea grain plan - NewsX-1.9%
• Jul 31, 2026Wheat Futures Rally on Black Sea Escalation as Market Tests Key Resistance-4.2%
• Sep 2, 2026Australian farmers: Black Sea war offers wheat market opportunity | Farm Online | ACT-4.1%
• Jul 20, 2026Wheat Climbs on Black Sea Risk, Soybeans Firm as China Returns+1.8%

After 72 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +2.5%), and -1.0% over 20.

• Mar 21, 2022Wheat rebounds on Black Sea supply worries; corn, soybeans rise 1% - Markets - Business Recorder+2.5%
• Jul 24, 2026Grains Markets Hit New Highs on Black Sea Attacks, Crude Oil Rally-4.9%
• Jan 20, 2025China’s yuan rises to over two-week high on positive US-China talk, better economic data - Markets - Business Recorder+1.1%
• Jul 16, 2026Wheat Soars as Black Sea Conflict Reshapes the Grain Markets | Agriculture of America+2.6%
• Sep 26, 2026Argentina set for near-record farm dollar windfall as global supply shocks lift grain exports - Markets - Business Recorder-3.1%

After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Jul 24, 2023Palm oil up over news on Ukraine port attack - Markets - Business Recorder+9.3%
• Mar 21, 2022Wheat rebounds on Black Sea supply worries; corn, soybeans rise 1% - Markets - Business Recorder+1.5%
• Jul 24, 2026Grains Markets Hit New Highs on Black Sea Attacks, Crude Oil Rally-3.8%
• Jan 20, 2025China’s yuan rises to over two-week high on positive US-China talk, better economic data - Markets - Business Recorder+0.3%
• Jul 31, 2026Wheat Futures Rally on Black Sea Escalation as Market Tests Key Resistance-1.6%