US corn planting seen down, soy acres up as Iran war inflates costs, analysts say

After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Apr 7, 2026Fertilizer spike adds up to $35/acre for US corn as Iran crisis bites-2.5%
• Mar 16, 2026Iran War: Asian feed millers take ‘wait‑and‑see’ approach as corn prices surge+2.4%
• Mar 1, 2022Morning report: Corn buys back acres amidst Ukrainian planting uncertainty – The Seam+4.7%
• Mar 1, 2022EU corn in demand as Ukraine war brings growing supply gap+4.7%
• Jul 15, 2026Wheat Skyrockets as Black Sea Exports Threatened, Pulling up Corn and Soybeans - AgWeb+3.2%

After 72 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +2.5%), and -1.0% over 20.

• Mar 1, 2022Morning report: Corn buys back acres amidst Ukrainian planting uncertainty – The Seam+1.8%
• Jul 15, 2026Wheat Skyrockets as Black Sea Exports Threatened, Pulling up Corn and Soybeans - AgWeb+1.0%
• May 7, 2022Soy boon for Argentina as Ukraine war boosts prices | The Straits Times+4.1%
• Aug 1, 2026Wheat Soars, Pulling up Corn and Soybeans: Outside Markets See Fed Fallout-1.3%
• Sep 28, 2022Wheat up on war worries; corn, soy also firm despite recession fears | Financial Post-1.7%

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Mar 1, 2022Morning report: Corn buys back acres amidst Ukrainian planting uncertainty – The Seam+10.5%
• Jul 15, 2026Wheat Skyrockets as Black Sea Exports Threatened, Pulling up Corn and Soybeans - AgWeb+4.5%
• Aug 1, 2026Wheat Soars, Pulling up Corn and Soybeans: Outside Markets See Fed Fallout-0.8%
• Sep 28, 2022Wheat up on war worries; corn, soy also firm despite recession fears | Financial Post+1.3%
• Jan 31, 2022Grain exports likely disrupted in a Russian, Ukraine conflict, analyst says-1.7%