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Wheat futures jumped double digits on Thursday after three Russian export terminals restricted truck deliveries and Ukrainian exports from Odesa were reportedly limited. Barchart's Darin Newsom said Russia's plan to arm grain vessels and the fighting raise questions about Russian wheat exports, and that discounted Russian wheat may draw buyers like India and Egypt.
Risk premium from halted Russian and Ukrainian exports supports wheat prices, with corn and soybeans following, though discounted Russian supply could limit upside.
agweb.comMichelle RookAug 1, 2026After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 72 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +2.5%), and -1.0% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 94 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.7% to +5.8%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
