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Rabobank warns that Hormuz closure has disrupted about 30% of global urea and 24% of phosphate exports, creating a supply shock. The article estimates US corn fertiliser costs rising by up to $35 per acre, with Morocco, Egypt, Algeria and Nigeria gaining export share.
Higher nitrogen costs threaten US corn acreage and application rates, which can reduce supply and support corn prices. Feed producers face higher input-linked costs.
agfundernews.comElaine WatsonApr 7, 2026After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 114 past bullish geopolitics events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
