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Russia announced special military operations in Ukraine, prompting first-round sanctions on Russian banks and wider Western measures. Brent rose above $105 for the first time since 2014, and CBOT wheat and corn gained about 5.5% and 5.1% respectively.
Black Sea export disruption threatens a large share of world wheat and corn trade, supporting grain prices and raising feed input costs, while energy spikes feed through to freight and fertilizer.
breakwaveadvisors.comBraemarFeb 27, 2022After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
CBOT corn rose about 5% alongside Brent above $105 and sanctions, adding energy and ethanol-linked support.
