
The White House said sanctions waivers for China, India, Japan, South Korea and Turkey will expire in May, after which those buyers could face U.S. sanctions. The stated aim is to bring Iran's oil exports to zero.
Ending waivers for major importers removes a large volume of Iranian crude from world supply and supports higher crude prices.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Details of the waiver expiry for major Iranian buyers (China, India, etc.) underpin the supply-loss narrative that sustained the move.