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Wheat futures rallied after reports that the Biden administration approved Ukraine's use of long-range missiles into Russia. Russia responded with threats including changes to its nuclear doctrine.
The geopolitical escalation created a short-lived risk premium in wheat, but the columnist argues it does not change underlying supply and demand fundamentals.
barchart.comDarin NewsomNov 20, 2024After 94 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.7% to +5.8%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
