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The article says heat, drought and drone strikes have cut harvests in major wheat exporters, with the US expected to post its worst wheat harvest in half a century. It also points to Black Sea attacks, Red Sea rerouting, and low Rhine and Danube water raising shipping costs.
A poor US crop, Black Sea disruption and higher freight costs tighten global wheat supply and push prices up, especially for hard red winter wheat.
thestar.com.mySOMINI SENGUPTASep 1, 2026After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 94 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.7% to +5.8%), and +0.1% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
