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Winter wheat futures rose to three-year highs in late July as US-Iran and Russia-Ukraine hostilities escalated. Russia and Ukraine together supply about 27% of global wheat exports, and heat and dryness are threatening spring wheat in the northern plains.
Black Sea export disruption combined with spring wheat weather stress reduces global wheat availability, supporting higher prices into the new crop marketing year.
farmprogress.comBruce BlytheJul 30, 2026After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 464 past geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.5%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 94 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.7% to +5.8%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
