
European natural gas prices reached their highest intraday level since early 2023 as Middle East attacks continue to choke LNG shipments. Dutch TTF front-month futures rose 3.8% to €78.72/MWh and were on pace for their highest close since late 2022.
Gains for the month exceeded 40%.
Attacks on LNG transit routes sharply tighten global gas supply, lifting European energy and fertilizer input costs. The move signals further upward pressure on feed production costs in Europe.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.