The Dutch TTF gas benchmark for October delivery reached an intraday high of €70.85 per MWh after US forces struck Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz and Iran retaliated. EU gas storage stood at 64.7% full, below historical norms for this time of year.
Disruption to Gulf LNG through Hormuz and low European storage keep European gas prices elevated, which supports nitrogen fertilizer and energy costs for feed producers.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.