
European gas prices hit all-time highs on Friday as Russia kept a tight lid on its gas supply. The move signals further price pressure on European consumers ahead of winter heating demand.
Russian supply restraint tightens European gas, which raises ammonia and urea production costs and supports fertilizer prices. Higher energy costs also squeeze European feed and livestock margins.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Record European gas prices on 1 Oct reinforce the production-cost squeeze on European nitrogen plants.