
Dutch TTF gas prices surged to their highest level of the year, near $14/mmBtu, as tighter supply and rising Middle East tensions lifted prices. Drivers included weak LNG supply growth, unplanned Norwegian field outages, EU storage shifting to withdrawals, and Russia's Arctic LNG 2 plant shutting down under sanctions.
Tight European supply ahead of winter pulls in more LNG cargoes and supports global gas prices, which in turn supports US LNG export demand. Geopolitical risk adds volatility to the outlook.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.