
WTI regained $100 per barrel and approached a three-week high after the UAE announced it would leave OPEC effective May 1. Brent traded above $111 earlier in the session.
The Strait of Hormuz disruption and the US-Iran conflict remain the main supply concerns.
Crude is supported by the Hormuz supply loss, though analysts expect the UAE exit to have limited immediate effect. Energy costs continue to pressure feed and fertilizer margins.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.