Grains hit two-year high as war weather and logistics tighten supply

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Jul 14, 2026Wheat surges as war weather and short covering collide | Saxo+4.5%
• Feb 26, 2026Global Wheat Supply Tightens as Winter Wheat Futures Hit Multi-Month Highs | FinancialContent+0.3%
• Aug 23, 2022Fertiliser supply tightens as gas price rises further - Farmers Weekly+1.4%
• Mar 9, 2026Crop Prices Jump as War Snarls Trade and Risks Tightening Supply - Bloomberg+0.6%
• Jul 22, 2026Grain Markets Explode to Fresh Highs on War, Weather with Wheat Leading - AgWeb-1.8%

After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Mar 23, 2026Corn Prices: Crop Hits Two-Week High as Iran War Threatens Fertilizer Supply - Bloomberg-0.3%
• Jul 14, 2026Wheat surges as war weather and short covering collide | Saxo+2.0%
• Aug 23, 2022Fertiliser supply tightens as gas price rises further - Farmers Weekly+5.2%
• Mar 9, 2026Crop Prices Jump as War Snarls Trade and Risks Tightening Supply - Bloomberg+0.9%
• Jul 22, 2026Grain Markets Explode to Fresh Highs on War, Weather with Wheat Leading - AgWeb+0.7%