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Uncertainty over sunflower oil supplies from the Russia-Ukraine conflict is driving buyers toward palm oil and soyoil. The Black Sea accounts for about 60% of world sunoil output and 76% of exports.
Loss of sunoil supply from the Black Sea shifts demand to palm and soy oils, supporting prices and potentially squeezing price-sensitive importers.
reuters.comRajendra JadhavFeb 23, 2022After 110 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybean Oil moved a median +1.8% over 5 sessions (65% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.6%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 62 past bullish geopolitics events, Palm Oil moved a median +2.5% over 5 sessions (74% higher; middle half -0.1% to +5.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Black Sea accounts for about 60% of sunoil output, so supply uncertainty drives buyers toward palm and soyoil.
