
Oilseed markets are being driven by the Russia-Ukraine war, with private analysts estimating 30-50% of Ukraine's winter rapeseed crop at risk. Russia has introduced sunflower oil and meal export quotas and a temporary ban on sunflower and rapeseed seed exports.
Losses of Black Sea rapeseed and sunflower supply and Russian export restrictions tighten the global oilseed balance, supporting vegetable oil and meal prices.
After 110 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybean Oil moved a median +1.8% over 5 sessions (65% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.6%), and -0.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.