China, India seek new supplies as US sanctions tighten grip on Russian oil

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Oct 22, 2025Oil extends gains after settlement on new sanctions on Russian oil companies | Reuters+5.0%
• Dec 13, 2024Oil up 2%, settles at 3-week high as more sanctions loom on Russia, Iran | Reuters-0.2%
• Feb 19, 2025Oil holds near one-week high on supply concerns, sanctions on Russia eyed | Reuters-4.1%
• Oct 23, 2025Oil futures return to structure signalling tight supply on Russia sanctions | Reuters+4.1%
• Oct 23, 2025Spot crude premiums jump as US sanctions on Russian producers drive China, India demand | Y94+4.1%

After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Oct 28, 2025Global refining margins soar as sanctions threaten Russian supplies | Reuters-1.4%
• Oct 22, 2025Oil surges 5% after US sanctions Russian firms Rosneft, Lukoil | Reuters+7.6%
• Mar 8, 2026Oil jumps to 2022 high on Iran war, falls after close as Russia sanctions in doubt | Reuters+10.4%
• Sep 29, 2018Brent hits 4-year high as U.S. sanctions on Iran tighten supply+1.6%
• Jan 15, 2025Oil rallies, settles at multi-month high on US crude draw, Russia sanctions-1.6%