Spot crude premiums jump as US sanctions on Russian producers drive China, India demand

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Jan 13, 2025China, India seek new supplies as US sanctions tighten grip on Russian oil | Reuters+2.7%
• Jan 15, 2025Oil rallies, settles at multi-month high on US crude draw, Russia sanctions-1.5%
• Mar 2, 2022Oil, gas, wheat and aluminium jump as Russia sanctions bite+21.0%
• Mar 8, 2026Oil jumps to 2022 high on Iran war, falls after close as Russia sanctions in doubt | Reuters+9.5%
• Oct 23, 2025Oil price jumps and FTSE 100 hits new high after Trump puts sanctions on Russian firms | Oil | The Guardian+4.1%

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, WTI moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Jan 15, 2025Oil rallies, settles at multi-month high on US crude draw, Russia sanctions-2.7%
• Mar 8, 2026Oil jumps to 2022 high on Iran war, falls after close as Russia sanctions in doubt | Reuters+8.5%
• Oct 23, 2025Oil price jumps and FTSE 100 hits new high after Trump puts sanctions on Russian firms | Oil | The Guardian+3.3%
• Jan 10, 2025Oil prices rally 3% as US hits Russian oil with tougher sanctions+7.0%
• Apr 2, 2020Trump says Saudis and Russians will not hike oil production, and price jumps - The Washington Post+23.3%