Oil rallies, settles at multi-month high on US crude draw, Russia sanctions

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Dec 13, 2024Oil up 2%, settles at 3-week high as more sanctions loom on Russia, Iran | Reuters-0.2%
• Mar 19, 2024Oil rises to multi-month highs on Russian supply concerns-1.3%
• Jan 10, 2025Oil prices rally 3% as US hits Russian oil with tougher sanctions+7.0%
• Oct 23, 2025Oil markets rally following US sanctions on Russian oil giants+3.3%
• Feb 22, 2022Oil settles near 2014 high on Russia-Ukraine escalation | Reuters+5.3%

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Dec 13, 2024Oil up 2%, settles at 3-week high as more sanctions loom on Russia, Iran | Reuters-0.2%
• Mar 19, 2024Oil rises to multi-month highs on Russian supply concerns-0.2%
• Jan 10, 2025Oil prices rally 3% as US hits Russian oil with tougher sanctions+5.4%
• Oct 23, 2025Oil markets rally following US sanctions on Russian oil giants+4.1%
• Jan 13, 2025China, India seek new supplies as US sanctions tighten grip on Russian oil | Reuters+2.7%

After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Jan 10, 2025Oil prices rally 3% as US hits Russian oil with tougher sanctions+10.5%
• Oct 23, 2025Oil markets rally following US sanctions on Russian oil giants+6.9%
• Jan 13, 2025China, India seek new supplies as US sanctions tighten grip on Russian oil | Reuters+4.9%
• Mar 8, 2026Oil jumps to 2022 high on Iran war, falls after close as Russia sanctions in doubt | Reuters+10.4%
• Jan 17, 2025Global diesel prices spike as US hits Russia with new sanctions-3.6%